Sequential Problem Solving by Fredric B. Lozo (bill gates books recommendations TXT) 📕

of the problem. The free association technique begins by trying to think about nothing in a relaxed, tension-free environment. Try as we might, something always intrudes on our consciousness. It may a line running toward the center of the web or it may be a seemingly meaningless, circular line. Every thought should be written down as it comes to mind, and the task of thinking about nothing begun anew. After ten or fifteen minutes, the train of intrusive thoughts usually begins to slow down, and we can then take the list of seemingly unrelated thoughts and sort out the ones that relate to the problem. The next step of brainstorming is to take the free association / stream of consciousness list and circle the words that pertain to the problem, and connect them with "web" lines into "clusters." These crude webs and clusters can then be reconstructed into a more legible outline. (Several styles of outlining are illustrated in the Appendix 2.) This outline can then be used in the subsequent steps of problem solving. The subsequent steps of the problem solving procedure involve hypothetico-deductive reasoning and is a part of the scientific method.[4]

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PROBLEM SOLVING STEPS.

1. Identify the problem (state the hypothesis).

2. Gather facts: three ways in the order of most reliability.

A. Research—library, Internet.

B. Ask someone knowledgeable.

C. Brainstorm: free association / stream of consciousness, web and cluster, outline.

3. Develop several alternative solutions.

4. Pick a possible solution and try it.

5. Evaluate the outcome.

6. Try again if necessary

* * * * * PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION.

Problem Identification is the first step of problem solving. In life, personal problems are often complicated by outside challenges. In literature, these forces are called external conflicts. The external conflict may be man challenged by nature, man embattled by society, or one man opposed by another man. In science, problems are often exclusively matters of a physical nature and the external conflict is man being challenged by nature.

Internal conflicts have a personal nature. By comparing personal internal conflicts to Aristotle's structure for dramas, these conflicts can often be recognized. Aristotle's drama structure divided the play into five acts with a hero, a villain, an external conflict and climax, and an emotional cleansing involving an internal conflict. Real life internal conflicts often involve character traits and values that are easily identified by this method.[5] (Character traits and values are discussed in the section on interpersonal relationships.)

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FACT GATHERING IN PROBLEM SOLVING.

The preferred order for gather facts is based on the order of reliability: library research, asking someone knowledgeable, and brainstorming.

Facts should be tested for logic, emotional fallacies, and the credibility of "expert" witnesses. Facts gained from research in a library are easiest to verify, and other methods of gathering facts must often be re-verified through library research. Logical and emotional weaknesses of arguments can often be recognized by the use of certain fallacy recognition checklists.[6] The most widely used of the fallacies is the over or under generalization: everyone (all, without exception, none, never, no one) rode a bicycle when only two years old. [7]

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The more common persuasive fallacies are:

LOGIC FALLACIES.

1. GENERALIZATION—It is raining everywhere. It has not rained anywhere. (The exception is discounted.)

2. CIRCULAR ARGUMENT—That team is the best because it is the greatest. (Similar adjectives describing each other.)

3. EITHER-OR fallacy—Either the city will drill more wells or it will run out of water. (This ignores the possibility of water pipelines, river dams, desalinization, etc.)

4. CAUSE AND EFFECT fallacies—two kinds:

A. SINGLE CAUSE fallacy—The streets are wet, therefore it has been snowing.(This discounts other causes like rain.)

B. GUILT BY ASSOCIATION—He has a friend that is a Japanese, therefore he must be Japanese in his soul.

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EMOTIONAL FALLACIES. (These are intended make a person fear loss of friendship.) [8]

1. GENERALIZATION—Everyone is doing it.

2. SNOB APPEAL—A special thing for a special group: Heroes wear only Hot Stuff clothes.

3. LOADED LANGUAGE—Emotionally connotative terms of derision: He is a "Mutt." (Not only a dog but also a worthless cur.)

4. NAME CALLING—This is often used to discredit someone. It is also often a problem evasion rather than a problem solving strategy that uses:

i. SARCASM.

ii. CYNICISM.

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CREDIBILITY FALLACIES.

Credibility fallacies are those in which uncertified people present themselves as experts: the famous actor dressed as a doctor recommending a certain medicine. The actor is not a trained professional and has no professional credibility.

FACT AND OPINION.

Certain keywords can be often be used to differentiate facts from opinions.

1. Generalizations. All inclusive or all exclusive terms that usually have exceptions: everyone, everything, no one, never, always:

It always rains in the summertime. (This does not take into account long droughts or geographic locations where rain rarely falls.)

Everyone drives a Ford.

2. Statements about the future:

We will never go there.

3. Statements of opinion:

It seems to me.

In my opinion.

4. Statements using the emphatic "to be" words. Is, are, was, were, etc. are often facts that can be proven either true or false, but are not necessarily as true as the "is" implies.

He is a genius.

For the purpose of gathering information in problem solving, facts are statements that can be readily verified as true or false; opinions cannot be quickly verified. In problem solving, the practical ability to prove something true without a great deal of effort is the key to practical truth. A statement that might merely hold the possibility of being proven true is, for all practical purposes, an opinion until it is proven true.

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DEDUCTIVE REASONING ERRORS

Deductive reasoning [9] is stating a series of valid relationships with a conclusion about them:

When it rains the streets get wet. It is raining. Therefore the streets are wet.

Several types of reasoning fallacies exist: (1) formal deductive fallacies, which occur because of an error in the form of the argument, and (2) informal fallacies that contain false content.

The INFORMAL FALSE CONTENT FALLACIES are listed in Appendix 4 and include:

LOGIC ERRORS.

* The "straw man" deception.

* The "false dilemma" deception.

* The "Domino Theory" deception.

* The "two wrongs make a right fallacies" deception.

EMOTIONAL ERRORS.

* The "attack the speaker" diversion.

* The "commonly accepted practice" deception.

* The "appeal to pity" tactic.

* The "infallible truth or cliche" deception.

The emotional tactics often include cynicism or sarcasm and are sometimes used to belittle another person. The effect is to make them feel worthless and unloved. This is an emotional fallacy that attacks a person's need for love and belonging. [10] This is discussed in greater detail in the section on Internal conflicts.

Sometimes debaters attempt to evade answering an argument using the "red herring" diversion. This tactic was named for game poachers that used a strong smelling fish to mask their scent from dogs used by game wardens trying to apprehend them. This tactic introduces another issue that diverts the discussion. It is often logically unrelated to the issue, and is often an emotional attack directed at the other person.

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PRACTICAL PROBLEM SOLVING

1. Beyer, Barry K. "Developing a Scope and Sequence for Thinking Skills Instruction". Educational Leadership 45(April 1988): 26-30.
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2. A Committee of College and University Examiners. "Educational Objectives and Curriculum Development". Taxonomy of Educational Objectives—Handbook 1: The Cognitive Domain.  Benjamin S. Bloom, ed. New York: David McKay Company, Inc., 1956.
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3. A Committee of College and University Examiners. "Educational Objectives and Curriculum Development". Taxonomy of Educational Objectives—Handbook 2: The Affective Domain.  Benjamin S. Bloom, ed. New York: David McKay Company, Inc., 1956.
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4. "The Galileo Affair", Owen Gingerick, American Scientific, August, 1982, #247, p.132-138.
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5. Aristotle. Rhetoric and the Poetics. F. Solmsen, ed. New York: The Modern Library, 1954.
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6. Critical Thinking and Reasoning: a handbook for Teachers. Albany: SUNY, 1976.
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7. "Classifying Fallacies Logically", Ludwig F. Schlecht, Teaching Philosophy, March, 1991, 14:1, p.53-656.
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8. Maslow, A. H. Motivation and Personality. New York: Harper and Row, 1954.
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9. Critical Thinking and Reasoning: A Handbook for Teachers. Albany: The University of the State of New York, 1976.
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10. Maslow, A. H. Motivation and Personality. New York: Harper and Row, 1954.
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DEVELOPING A SOLUTION.

Developing solutions should take into account time, material and manpower. How much time is available to solve a problem? Are the materials available? Is the manpower available?

TIME.

How much time is available? Often problems are best solved by using "Kentucky windage." Artillery gunners use the expression, "One over, one under, one dead center." This refers to making gross adjustments rather than walking a solution toward a problem one small step at a time. This technique has also been called "Eliminating the extremes": walking toward the center from either end, half way at a time. This technique reduces the time required to solve a problem in a binary fashion by halves, rather than in arithmetic progression one small step at a time.

Often the first solutions tried don't work. We may learn more facts about problems as we try to solve them. Many times a problem requires re-defining and the entire nature of the solution changes from one trial to the next. In science, every experiment is valuable because what is disproven is as valuable as the final solution. A disproven solution reduces the possibilities by providing answers about what is not possible.

We need to take into account problems that will arise. It is useful to double or triple the initial time estimate when beginning new projects. It is prudent to plan on finishing the job in one-third to one-half of the time we would like to finish the job. This is particularly true with artistic projects; artists often want to add one final touch, and one more touch ad infinitum (the "Michelangelo" dilemma).

Timing for the various elements in a job can often be charted beginning with the first thing needed to be done and ending with a review of the project and future planning. Such charts are easily constructed on spreadsheets with calendar dates in vertical columns and tasks in horizontal rows. This form of time chart is a marching calendar. Initially, the chart can also be used to back schedule material purchase for future delivery. As sequential tasks are completed, the consecutive days are highlighted. This provides a rapid visualization to the project planners of the status of the project.

Project Calendar.

Task.

   Initial planning.

   Gather information.

   Pick team.

   Make  drawings.

   Assemble materials.

   Make prototype.

   Review prototype.

Manufacture actual product.

Evaluate project.

Plan follow up.

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MATERIAL.

Are the materials available? Can we afford the cost of the materials? Sometimes it is possible to make an "first piece" or "practice piece" out of inexpensive materials. Practice pieces are helpful to learn practical manufacturing methods. Producing detailed drawings and listing manufacturing steps often save time and material in the long run. Practice pieces made of soft and easy to work material, like balsam wood, also serve the purpose of providing an actual mock up that can be quickly modified by cut and paste methods. The practice piece usually does not have to be pretty, only functional. It provides an idea of what changes need to be made before expensive or hard to procure materials are used.

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MANPOWER.

Is sufficient manpower available to execute the plan? Are the talents of the available manpower matched to the task? [1] Are the available people qualified to perform the tasks? Are the men being lead by the best method? Several alternative methods exist for leading or managing workers on a project. These will be discussed in the section on leadership.

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Developing a Solution.