The Money Men by Chris Bowen (superbooks4u .txt) 📕

had a formula for his answers to these questions: he would say that his track record of loyalty to Liberal leaders was answer enough to that question. This was certainly acceptable to Peacock, until the day arrived when, for some reason, it wasn’t. In September 1985, Peacock demanded that Howard rule out a leadership challenge. When Howard insisted on keeping to his established formula, Peacock asked the Liberal party room to remove Howard as deputy. Howard exercised his right to contest the ensuing ballot for deputy, and the Liberal Party expressed its support for him—Howard beat Liberal MP John Moore by thirty-eight votes to thirty-one. Peacock rightly concluded that his leadership was untenable and resigned. Howard then contested the leadership and defeated Jim Carlton, the member for the NSW seat of Mackellar, by an overwhelming fifty-seven votes to six.

Howard had hardened his pro-market stance in the years following his departure from the treasurership, and consequently, during his first stint as Liberal leader, he developed a more robust free-market approach for the Liberal Party. But Howard’s campaign to become prime minister was robbed of any chance of success by a split with the National Party (as the Country Party had formally been renamed in 1982), with an abortive bid by Queensland premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen to become prime minister. Howard had been a strong supporter of the coalition arrangement since the earliest days of his career, so the collapse of the coalition government during his period as leader was particularly ironic.

The 1987 election saw the Hawke government increase its majority by four seats following the Liberals’ split with the National Party and a disaster in the costings of the Liberal Party tax policy, which was the responsibility of shadow treasurer Jim Carlton but which Howard took responsibility for. Peacock challenged Howard after the election, but Howard commanded forty-one votes to Peacock’s twenty-eight. However, continuing poor popularity eventually took its toll, the disapproval highlighted by a 13 per cent approval rating in a Bulletin poll with a headline that screamed ‘Why Does This Man Bother?’ next to a picture of Howard. Howard also made ill-judged comments about the social impact of Asian immigration, which took a huge toll on his leadership.

Peacock saw the opportunity and launched a leadership challenge in 1989. He beat Howard by forty-four votes to twenty-seven, effectively reversing the margin of the 1987 ballot. Howard retreated to the backbench, particularly bruised by the gloating of some anti-Howard conspirators on a Four Corners exposé on the coup. It was on the day of that broadcast that Howard declared his return to the leadership would be ‘like Lazarus with a triple bypass’.

Howard returned to the front bench after the 1990 election as shadow minister for industrial relations. He used this opportunity to promote decentralised wage setting, in keeping with his oft-repeated frustration as treasurer that wages growth was not keeping in touch with the economic reality. Howard flirted with running against Alexander Downer when John Hewson’s leadership imploded in 1994, but he was convinced that he lacked the requisite support. He resolved to only make himself available for the leadership in the future if he was drafted unopposed. This happened in 1995 when Downer’s leadership in turn collapsed, and a desperate Liberal Party prevailed upon Howard to return to the leadership.

Howard went on to win the 1996 election, as well as the 1998, 2001 and 2004 elections. The 2007 poll saw Howard become the second prime minister to lose his seat at an election.

An Evaluation

If John Howard’s career had ended when he ceased to be treasurer, it would be extremely difficult to regard it as a triumph. He had moderate success at best in bringing spending growth under control. In fact, an analysis of economic results during his treasurership shows that Howard was the only treasurer in history to have double-digit unemployment, inflation and interest rates simultaneously on his watch. Of course, the international economic situation remained extremely difficult during his tenure, and the bad drought of the early 1980s was terrible for the domestic economy, all of which must be taken into account in judging Howard’s record.

Yet, despite the challenges and setbacks, Howard left the Treasury an enhanced, not diminished, figure. His lack of success did not damage his stocks in his party. Of all the treasurers of the 1970s, it is only Howard and Hayden of whom this can fairly be said.

Howard was successful in bringing about serious action to deal with tax evasion. This is one area in which he worked effectively with his prime minister. Howard showed a willingness to stand up to vested interests that had a capacity to damage his political interests through the offices of the Liberal Party. Tax evasion in Australia was serious and worsening, and Howard’s efforts to deal with it were positive, effective and commendable.

The stop-start process of financial deregulation, though, was not a success story. The only substantial move to deregulate financial services during Howard’s tenure, the setting of interest rates on government bonds by the market, was driven by Fraser, with Howard resisting at first. Howard eventually became a strident advocate for financial deregulation, but this development was too late in the life of the Fraser government for it to be effective.

It is difficult to escape the conclusion that Howard became treasurer too early. He had only been in parliament for three years when he assumed the role. He had never been a Cabinet minister. He did not have sufficient authority and gravitas in his own right to be influential. Only once he was settled in the job and had been elected deputy leader did he feel able to consistently prosecute a strong policy case. By this time, the government in which he served was in terminal decline, and the prime minister, seeking to avoid the inevitable, was timid when it came to the necessary economic reforms. Although Howard had been involved in politics for a long time, it was only well into his tenure as treasurer that he